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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
5
13
0
0
16
16
6
11
23
40
12
13
44
69

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
5
13
13
8
33
54
6
11
23
40
25
21
61
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
3
7
19
0
0
23
23
9
16
33
58
17
19
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
5
12
12
7
31
50
6
10
21
37
23
20
57
100

hitrate: 0.420 hitrate: 0.346
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.08 1.23 0.91
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.52 2.57 0.66
Heidke skill score: 0.130 Heidke skill score: 0.019
true Heidke skill score: -0.047 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.130 Kuipers skill score: 0.019
true Kuipers skill score: -0.049 true Kuipers skill score: 0.009
threat score:
0.316 0.000 0.377
threat score:
0.188 0.119 0.295
equitable threat score:
0.223 -0.116 -0.071
equitable threat score:
0.102 -0.046 0.004
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.523
probability of detection:
0.240 0.381 0.377
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.538 1.000 0.425
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.538 0.852 0.425
samples: 69 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 64.49 %coverage: 100.00