CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
7
14
0
4
19
23
2
6
29
37
3
16
55
74

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
7
14
6
17
34
57
2
6
29
37
9
29
70
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
9
19
0
5
26
31
3
8
39
50
4
22
74
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
6
13
6
16
31
53
2
6
27
34
8
27
65
100

hitrate: 0.459 hitrate: 0.435
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.67 1.44 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.56 1.97 0.53
Heidke skill score: 0.189 Heidke skill score: 0.153
true Heidke skill score: 0.023 true Heidke skill score: 0.097
Kuipers skill score: 0.189 Kuipers skill score: 0.153
true Kuipers skill score: 0.032 true Kuipers skill score: 0.121
threat score:
0.062 0.114 0.460
threat score:
0.045 0.246 0.372
equitable threat score:
0.028 -0.032 0.042
equitable threat score:
-0.008 0.032 0.093
probability of detection:
0.333 0.250 0.527
probability of detection:
0.111 0.586 0.414
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.929 0.826 0.216
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.929 0.702 0.216
samples: 74 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 68.52 %coverage: 100.00