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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199507-199509

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
14
21
0
1
7
8
1
4
13
18
2
11
34
47

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
14
21
7
19
43
69
1
4
13
18
9
29
70
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
13
30
45
0
2
15
17
2
9
28
38
4
23
72
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
13
19
6
18
40
64
1
4
12
17
8
27
65
100

hitrate: 0.319 hitrate: 0.306
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
10.50 0.73 0.53
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.33 2.38 0.26
Heidke skill score: -0.021 Heidke skill score: -0.042
true Heidke skill score: -0.025 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: -0.021 Kuipers skill score: -0.042
true Kuipers skill score: -0.040 true Kuipers skill score: 0.020
threat score:
0.045 0.056 0.333
threat score:
0.034 0.241 0.173
equitable threat score:
0.005 -0.054 -0.001
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.008 0.021
probability of detection:
0.500 0.091 0.382
probability of detection:
0.111 0.655 0.186
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.952 0.875 0.278
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.952 0.725 0.278
samples: 47 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 43.52 %coverage: 100.00