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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199508-199510

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
20
29
1
2
10
13
0
6
13
19
2
16
43
61

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
20
29
5
17
36
58
0
6
13
19
6
31
69
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
13
33
48
2
3
16
21
0
10
21
31
3
26
70
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
19
27
5
16
34
55
0
6
12
18
6
29
65
100

hitrate: 0.262 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
14.50 0.81 0.44
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.83 1.87 0.28
Heidke skill score: -0.107 Heidke skill score: -0.061
true Heidke skill score: -0.041 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: -0.107 Kuipers skill score: -0.061
true Kuipers skill score: -0.066 true Kuipers skill score: 0.001
threat score:
0.033 0.074 0.265
threat score:
0.029 0.236 0.173
equitable threat score:
0.002 -0.060 -0.011
equitable threat score:
-0.020 0.001 0.010
probability of detection:
0.500 0.125 0.302
probability of detection:
0.167 0.548 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.966 0.846 0.316
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.966 0.707 0.316
samples: 61 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 57.55 %coverage: 100.00