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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
7
7
19
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
5
7
13
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
7
7
19
35
26
17
78
0
0
6
6
40
33
30
103

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
28
28
76
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
24
20
28
52
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
7
7
18
34
25
17
76
0
0
6
6
39
32
29
100

hitrate: 0.440 hitrate: 0.359
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.80 0.00 0.46
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.48 2.36 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.160 Heidke skill score: 0.039
true Heidke skill score: 0.226 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.160 Kuipers skill score: 0.039
true Kuipers skill score: 0.267 true Kuipers skill score: 0.042
threat score:
0.263 0.000 0.462
threat score:
0.093 0.306 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.079 0.000 0.291
equitable threat score:
-0.051 0.017 0.151
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.462
probability of detection:
0.125 0.788 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.737 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.737 0.667 0.000
samples: 25 out of 103 samples: 103 out of 103
%coverage: 24.27 %coverage: 100.00