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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
53
19
26
98
0
1
4
5
53
20
30
103

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
80
100
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
51
18
25
95
0
1
4
5
51
19
29
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.223
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.90 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: -0.165
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: -0.165
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.192 0.129
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.086
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.950 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.806 0.200
samples: 5 out of 103 samples: 103 out of 103
%coverage: 4.85 %coverage: 100.00