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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
6
0
1
5
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
53
19
25
97
0
1
5
6
53
20
30
103

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
83
100
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
51
18
24
94
0
1
5
6
51
19
29
100

hitrate: 0.833 hitrate: 0.233
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.85 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.750 Heidke skill score: -0.150
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.041
Kuipers skill score: 0.750 Kuipers skill score: -0.150
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.054
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.833
threat score:
0.000 0.194 0.161
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.002 0.111
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.950 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.804 0.167
samples: 6 out of 103 samples: 103 out of 103
%coverage: 5.83 %coverage: 100.00