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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
5
12
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
1
7
9
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
5
12
52
13
21
86
0
1
4
5
53
20
30
103

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
35
29
71
0
0
0
0
0
6
24
29
6
41
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
6
5
12
50
13
20
83
0
1
4
5
51
19
29
100

hitrate: 0.294 hitrate: 0.175
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
12.00 0.00 0.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 4.30 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.059 Heidke skill score: -0.238
true Heidke skill score: 0.121 true Heidke skill score: -0.080
Kuipers skill score: -0.059 Kuipers skill score: -0.238
true Kuipers skill score: 0.177 true Kuipers skill score: -0.100
threat score:
0.083 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.016 0.140 0.129
equitable threat score:
0.026 0.000 0.184
equitable threat score:
-0.089 -0.048 0.086
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.444
probability of detection:
0.019 0.650 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.917 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.917 0.849 0.200
samples: 17 out of 103 samples: 103 out of 103
%coverage: 16.50 %coverage: 100.00