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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
23
16
51
12
23
16
51

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
33
14
53
12
23
16
51
18
56
30
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
45
31
100
24
45
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
32
13
51
12
22
15
49
17
54
29
100

hitrate: 0.314 hitrate: 0.471
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.19
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.95 1.70
Heidke skill score: -0.029 Heidke skill score: 0.207
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.095
Kuipers skill score: -0.029 Kuipers skill score: 0.207
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.093
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.314
threat score:
0.000 0.434 0.246
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.094 0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.589 0.533
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.686
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.377 0.686
samples: 51 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 49.04 %coverage: 100.00