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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
10
27
10
47
10
28
10
48

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
8
28
20
56
10
27
10
47
18
56
30
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
0
0
0
21
56
21
98
21
58
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
8
27
19
54
10
26
10
45
17
54
29
100

hitrate: 0.208 hitrate: 0.365
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 0.00 4.70
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 1.00 1.57
Heidke skill score: -0.188 Heidke skill score: 0.048
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.098
Kuipers skill score: -0.188 Kuipers skill score: 0.048
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.095
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.213
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.149
equitable threat score:
-0.019 0.000 0.006
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.040 -0.067
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.787
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.787
samples: 48 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 46.15 %coverage: 100.00