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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
26
44
10
80
26
44
10
80

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
7
8
24
26
44
10
80
35
51
18
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
55
13
100
33
55
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
7
8
23
25
42
10
77
34
49
17
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.163
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 8.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.47 4.44
Heidke skill score: -0.313 Heidke skill score: -0.255
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.110
Kuipers skill score: -0.313 Kuipers skill score: -0.255
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.134
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.125
threat score:
0.000 0.103 0.114
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.085 -0.052
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.137 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.708 0.875
samples: 80 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 76.92 %coverage: 100.00