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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
7
0
10
19
13
11
43
22
20
11
53

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
38
7
61
19
13
11
43
35
51
18
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
13
0
19
36
25
21
81
42
38
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
37
7
59
18
13
11
41
34
49
17
100

hitrate: 0.340 hitrate: 0.471
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 3.91
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.20 2.39
Heidke skill score: 0.009 Heidke skill score: 0.207
true Heidke skill score: 0.132 true Heidke skill score: 0.175
Kuipers skill score: 0.009 Kuipers skill score: 0.207
true Kuipers skill score: 0.156 true Kuipers skill score: 0.182
threat score:
0.000 0.304 0.256
threat score:
0.000 0.514 0.220
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.168 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.183 0.084
probability of detection:
0.000 0.350 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.745 0.611
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.300 0.744
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.377 0.744
samples: 53 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 50.96 %coverage: 100.00