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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
28
4
9
41
28
4
9
41

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
25
9
63
28
4
9
41
57
29
18
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
68
10
22
100
68
10
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
24
9
61
27
4
9
39
55
28
17
100

hitrate: 0.220 hitrate: 0.327
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.17 2.28
Heidke skill score: -0.171 Heidke skill score: -0.010
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.118
Kuipers skill score: -0.171 Kuipers skill score: -0.010
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.152
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.220
threat score:
0.000 0.373 0.180
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.150 0.044
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.862 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.780
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.603 0.780
samples: 41 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 39.42 %coverage: 100.00