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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
46
16
12
74
46
16
12
74

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
13
6
30
46
16
12
74
57
29
18
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
62
22
16
100
62
22
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
13
6
29
44
15
12
71
55
28
17
100

hitrate: 0.162 hitrate: 0.240
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 6.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.03 4.11
Heidke skill score: -0.257 Heidke skill score: -0.139
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.046
Kuipers skill score: -0.257 Kuipers skill score: -0.139
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.062
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.162
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.150
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.123 -0.012
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.448 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.838
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.567 0.838
samples: 74 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 71.15 %coverage: 100.00