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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
3
7
15
25
7
7
15
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
59
14
2
75
3
7
15
25
66
21
17
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
0
14
0
0
0
0
10
24
52
86
24
24
52
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
57
13
2
72
3
7
14
24
63
20
16
100

hitrate: 0.655 hitrate: 0.317
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.57 0.00 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 3.57 1.47
Heidke skill score: 0.483 Heidke skill score: -0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.338 true Heidke skill score: 0.137
Kuipers skill score: 0.483 Kuipers skill score: -0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.286 true Kuipers skill score: 0.204
threat score:
0.571 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.061 0.171 0.556
equitable threat score:
0.503 0.000 0.171
equitable threat score:
0.023 -0.017 0.476
probability of detection:
0.571 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.061 0.667 0.882
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.813 0.400
samples: 29 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 27.88 %coverage: 100.00