CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
16
6
12
34
17
7
12
36

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
49
14
5
68
16
6
12
34
66
21
17
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
3
0
6
0
0
0
0
44
17
33
94
47
19
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
47
13
5
65
15
6
12
33
63
20
16
100

hitrate: 0.361 hitrate: 0.260
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 0.00 2.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.24 2.00
Heidke skill score: 0.042 Heidke skill score: -0.111
true Heidke skill score: 0.030 true Heidke skill score: 0.077
Kuipers skill score: 0.042 Kuipers skill score: -0.111
true Kuipers skill score: 0.032 true Kuipers skill score: 0.117
threat score:
0.056 0.000 0.353
threat score:
0.015 0.187 0.308
equitable threat score:
0.003 0.000 0.029
equitable threat score:
-0.004 0.004 0.193
probability of detection:
0.059 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.015 0.667 0.706
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.647
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.794 0.647
samples: 36 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 34.62 %coverage: 100.00