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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
7
13
37
17
7
13
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
49
14
4
67
17
7
13
37
66
21
17
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
46
19
35
100
46
19
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
47
13
4
64
16
7
13
36
63
20
16
100

hitrate: 0.351 hitrate: 0.260
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.85
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.19 2.18
Heidke skill score: 0.027 Heidke skill score: -0.111
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.088
Kuipers skill score: 0.027 Kuipers skill score: -0.111
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.135
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.351
threat score:
0.000 0.189 0.317
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.008 0.199
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.765
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.649
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.791 0.649
samples: 37 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 35.58 %coverage: 100.00