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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
0
0
0
0
22
7
14
43
24
8
14
46

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
42
13
3
58
22
7
14
43
66
21
17
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
7
0
0
0
0
48
15
30
93
52
17
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
40
13
3
56
21
7
13
41
63
20
16
100

hitrate: 0.348 hitrate: 0.279
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 0.00 3.07
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.76 2.53
Heidke skill score: 0.022 Heidke skill score: -0.082
true Heidke skill score: 0.043 true Heidke skill score: 0.100
Kuipers skill score: 0.022 Kuipers skill score: -0.082
true Kuipers skill score: 0.048 true Kuipers skill score: 0.152
threat score:
0.080 0.000 0.326
threat score:
0.030 0.197 0.304
equitable threat score:
0.019 0.000 0.031
equitable threat score:
0.001 0.024 0.179
probability of detection:
0.083 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.030 0.619 0.824
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.000 0.674
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.776 0.674
samples: 46 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 44.23 %coverage: 100.00