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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
1
5
3
9
6
21
14
41
8
26
18
52

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
23
21
18
62
6
21
14
41
30
42
33
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
2
10
6
17
12
40
27
79
15
50
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
22
20
17
59
6
20
13
39
29
40
31
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.35 2.28
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 1.48 1.24
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.030 true Heidke skill score: -0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.032 true Kuipers skill score: -0.033
threat score:
0.111 0.167 0.311
threat score:
0.032 0.253 0.233
equitable threat score:
0.080 0.020 -0.006
equitable threat score:
0.014 -0.065 0.024
probability of detection:
0.125 0.192 0.778
probability of detection:
0.033 0.500 0.424
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.444 0.659
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.661 0.659
samples: 52 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 49.52 %coverage: 100.00