CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
0
0
0
16
20
22
58
16
21
23
60

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
18
13
14
45
16
20
22
58
34
34
37
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
0
0
0
0
27
33
37
97
27
35
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
17
12
13
43
15
19
21
55
32
32
35
100

hitrate: 0.367 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 0.00 2.52
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 1.32 1.57
Heidke skill score: 0.050 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.021 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: 0.050 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.019 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.373
threat score:
0.000 0.197 0.301
equitable threat score:
-0.031 0.000 -0.006
equitable threat score:
-0.018 -0.031 0.030
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.957
probability of detection:
0.000 0.382 0.595
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.621
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.711 0.621
samples: 60 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 57.14 %coverage: 100.00