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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
17
26
14
57
22
26
14
62

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
9
17
17
43
17
26
14
57
31
43
31
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
27
42
23
92
35
42
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
9
16
16
41
16
25
13
54
30
41
30
100

hitrate: 0.306 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 0.00 4.07
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 1.00 1.84
Heidke skill score: -0.040 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.092 true Heidke skill score: 0.001
Kuipers skill score: -0.040 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.109 true Kuipers skill score: 0.001
threat score:
0.227 0.000 0.246
threat score:
0.161 0.246 0.189
equitable threat score:
0.159 0.000 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.119 -0.012 -0.049
probability of detection:
0.227 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.161 0.395 0.452
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.754
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.605 0.754
samples: 62 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 59.05 %coverage: 100.00