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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
0
0
0
0
10
13
10
33
17
15
10
42

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
28
25
10
63
10
13
10
33
45
40
20
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
5
0
21
0
0
0
0
24
31
24
79
40
36
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
27
24
10
60
10
12
10
31
43
38
19
100

hitrate: 0.405 hitrate: 0.400
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 0.00 3.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 1.58 1.65
Heidke skill score: 0.107 Heidke skill score: 0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.180 true Heidke skill score: 0.111
Kuipers skill score: 0.107 Kuipers skill score: 0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.201 true Kuipers skill score: 0.118
threat score:
0.368 0.000 0.303
threat score:
0.149 0.321 0.233
equitable threat score:
0.219 0.000 0.085
equitable threat score:
0.073 0.019 0.101
probability of detection:
0.412 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.156 0.625 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.000 0.697
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.603 0.697
samples: 42 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 40.00 %coverage: 100.00