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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
3
1
15
7
2
0
9
9
10
8
27
27
15
9
51

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
3
1
15
25
27
11
63
9
10
8
27
45
40
20
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
6
2
29
14
4
0
18
18
20
16
53
53
29
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
3
1
14
24
26
10
60
9
10
8
26
43
38
19
100

hitrate: 0.412 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 0.60 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.58 1.35
Heidke skill score: 0.118 Heidke skill score: 0.157
true Heidke skill score: 0.158 true Heidke skill score: 0.150
Kuipers skill score: 0.118 Kuipers skill score: 0.157
true Kuipers skill score: 0.184 true Kuipers skill score: 0.156
threat score:
0.355 0.091 0.286
threat score:
0.224 0.355 0.205
equitable threat score:
0.133 -0.033 0.139
equitable threat score:
0.107 0.058 0.084
probability of detection:
0.407 0.133 0.889
probability of detection:
0.244 0.675 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.267 0.778 0.704
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.267 0.571 0.704
samples: 51 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 48.57 %coverage: 100.00