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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
9
3
21
7
2
0
9
6
8
7
21
22
19
10
51

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
9
3
21
21
30
12
63
6
8
7
21
36
47
22
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
18
6
41
14
4
0
18
12
16
14
41
43
37
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
9
3
20
20
29
11
60
6
8
7
20
34
45
21
100

hitrate: 0.353 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.95 0.47 2.10
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.58 1.34 0.95
Heidke skill score: 0.029 Heidke skill score: 0.157
true Heidke skill score: 0.043 true Heidke skill score: 0.095
Kuipers skill score: 0.029 Kuipers skill score: 0.157
true Kuipers skill score: 0.045 true Kuipers skill score: 0.093
threat score:
0.265 0.077 0.292
threat score:
0.188 0.375 0.194
equitable threat score:
-0.002 -0.060 0.145
equitable threat score:
0.044 0.035 0.082
probability of detection:
0.409 0.105 0.700
probability of detection:
0.250 0.638 0.318
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.778 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.524 0.667
samples: 51 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 48.57 %coverage: 100.00