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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
7
6
23
4
1
0
5
6
9
7
22
20
17
13
50

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
7
6
23
20
31
9
60
6
9
7
22
36
47
22
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
14
12
46
8
2
0
10
12
18
14
44
40
34
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
7
6
22
19
30
9
57
6
9
7
21
34
45
21
100

hitrate: 0.360 hitrate: 0.457
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.15 0.29 1.69
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.64 1.28 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.040 Heidke skill score: 0.186
true Heidke skill score: 0.041 true Heidke skill score: 0.132
Kuipers skill score: 0.040 Kuipers skill score: 0.186
true Kuipers skill score: 0.042 true Kuipers skill score: 0.129
threat score:
0.303 0.048 0.250
threat score:
0.204 0.408 0.189
equitable threat score:
0.034 -0.036 0.057
equitable threat score:
0.051 0.084 0.074
probability of detection:
0.500 0.059 0.538
probability of detection:
0.278 0.660 0.318
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.565 0.800 0.682
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.565 0.483 0.682
samples: 50 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 47.62 %coverage: 100.00