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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
0
11
0
0
0
0
0
3
7
10
8
6
7
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
0
11
26
38
20
84
0
3
7
10
34
44
27
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
14
0
52
0
0
0
0
0
14
33
48
38
29
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
3
0
10
25
36
19
80
0
3
7
10
32
42
26
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.505
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.38 0.00 1.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 1.91 0.37
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: 0.257
true Heidke skill score: 0.555 true Heidke skill score: 0.183
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: 0.257
true Kuipers skill score: 0.538 true Kuipers skill score: 0.170
threat score:
0.727 0.000 0.700
threat score:
0.216 0.422 0.233
equitable threat score:
0.559 0.000 0.550
equitable threat score:
0.133 0.051 0.161
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.235 0.864 0.259
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.273 0.000 0.300
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.273 0.548 0.300
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00