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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
7
1
16
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
8
7
2
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
7
1
16
26
37
25
88
0
0
1
1
34
44
27
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
47
41
6
94
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
47
41
12
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
7
1
15
25
35
24
84
0
0
1
1
32
42
26
100

hitrate: 0.529 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 2.00 0.04
Heidke skill score: 0.294 Heidke skill score: 0.157
true Heidke skill score: 0.145 true Heidke skill score: 0.059
Kuipers skill score: 0.294 Kuipers skill score: 0.157
true Kuipers skill score: 0.134 true Kuipers skill score: 0.054
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.190 0.389 0.037
equitable threat score:
0.056 0.000 0.469
equitable threat score:
0.077 0.002 0.028
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.235 0.841 0.037
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.580 0.000
samples: 17 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 16.19 %coverage: 100.00