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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
0
0
0
0
3
4
1
8
3
4
5
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
25
42
26
93
3
4
1
8
28
46
31
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
33
33
0
0
0
0
25
33
8
67
25
33
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
24
40
25
89
3
4
1
8
27
44
30
100

hitrate: 0.083 hitrate: 0.410
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.00 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.02 0.26
Heidke skill score: -0.375 Heidke skill score: 0.114
true Heidke skill score: -0.435 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: -0.375 Kuipers skill score: 0.114
true Kuipers skill score: -0.426 true Kuipers skill score: -0.017
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.083
threat score:
0.000 0.433 0.026
equitable threat score:
-0.167 0.000 -0.269
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.022 -0.038
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.000 0.913 0.032
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.548 0.875
samples: 12 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 11.43 %coverage: 100.00