CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
7
1
8
1
12
52
65
1
19
53
73

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
25
15
40
1
12
52
65
1
37
67
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
10
1
11
1
16
71
89
1
26
73
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
24
14
38
1
11
50
62
1
35
64
100

hitrate: 0.808 hitrate: 0.733
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.42 1.23
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.08 0.97
Heidke skill score: 0.712 Heidke skill score: 0.600
true Heidke skill score: 0.410 true Heidke skill score: 0.434
Kuipers skill score: 0.712 Kuipers skill score: 0.600
true Kuipers skill score: 0.329 true Kuipers skill score: 0.436
threat score:
0.000 0.350 0.788
threat score:
0.000 0.481 0.650
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.274 0.256
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.288 0.273
probability of detection:
0.000 0.368 0.981
probability of detection:
0.000 0.676 0.776
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.125 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.375 0.200
samples: 73 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 69.52 %coverage: 100.00