CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
26
56
83
1
26
56
83

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
11
11
22
1
26
56
83
1
37
67
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
31
67
100
1
31
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
10
10
21
1
25
53
79
1
35
64
100

hitrate: 0.675 hitrate: 0.638
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.48
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.59 1.24
Heidke skill score: 0.512 Heidke skill score: 0.457
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.142
Kuipers skill score: 0.512 Kuipers skill score: 0.457
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.128
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.675
threat score:
0.000 0.229 0.596
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.081 0.074
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.297 0.836
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.325
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.325
samples: 83 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 79.05 %coverage: 100.00