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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
15
32
52
5
15
32
52

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
32
12
53
5
15
32
52
14
47
44
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
29
62
100
10
29
62
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
30
11
50
5
14
30
50
13
45
42
100

hitrate: 0.615 hitrate: 0.610
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.13 1.18
Heidke skill score: 0.423 Heidke skill score: 0.414
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.311
Kuipers skill score: 0.423 Kuipers skill score: 0.414
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.290
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.615
threat score:
0.000 0.471 0.500
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.187 0.242
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.681 0.727
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.385
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.396 0.385
samples: 52 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 49.52 %coverage: 100.00