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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
27
7
18
52
27
7
18
52

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
37
9
7
53
27
7
18
52
64
16
25
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
52
13
35
100
52
13
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
9
7
50
26
7
17
50
61
15
24
100

hitrate: 0.346 hitrate: 0.257
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.31 2.08
Heidke skill score: 0.019 Heidke skill score: -0.114
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.077
Kuipers skill score: 0.019 Kuipers skill score: -0.114
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.114
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.346
threat score:
0.000 0.150 0.305
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.018 0.121
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.562 0.720
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.654
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.830 0.654
samples: 52 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 49.52 %coverage: 100.00