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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
6
0
0
6
12
2
10
24
21
2
10
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
65
7
6
78
12
2
10
24
80
9
16
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
0
0
9
18
0
0
18
36
6
30
73
64
6
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
0
0
3
62
7
6
74
11
2
10
23
76
9
15
100

hitrate: 0.394 hitrate: 0.190
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 3.00 2.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 8.67 1.50
Heidke skill score: 0.091 Heidke skill score: -0.214
true Heidke skill score: 0.147 true Heidke skill score: 0.080
Kuipers skill score: 0.091 Kuipers skill score: -0.214
true Kuipers skill score: 0.210 true Kuipers skill score: 0.181
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.417
threat score:
0.038 0.087 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.057 -0.048 0.163
equitable threat score:
0.009 0.004 0.241
probability of detection:
0.143 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.038 0.778 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.583
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.910 0.583
samples: 33 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 31.43 %coverage: 100.00