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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
7
0
0
7
21
3
11
35
30
3
11
44

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
57
6
5
68
21
3
11
35
80
9
16
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
16
0
0
16
48
7
25
80
68
7
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
54
6
5
65
20
3
10
33
76
9
15
100

hitrate: 0.295 hitrate: 0.181
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.33 3.18
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 7.56 2.19
Heidke skill score: -0.057 Heidke skill score: -0.229
true Heidke skill score: 0.072 true Heidke skill score: 0.068
Kuipers skill score: -0.057 Kuipers skill score: -0.229
true Kuipers skill score: 0.117 true Kuipers skill score: 0.155
threat score:
0.067 0.000 0.314
threat score:
0.025 0.085 0.275
equitable threat score:
0.022 -0.050 0.086
equitable threat score:
0.006 0.003 0.163
probability of detection:
0.067 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.025 0.667 0.688
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.686
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.912 0.686
samples: 44 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 41.90 %coverage: 100.00