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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
27
8
8
43
28
8
8
44

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
34
19
8
61
27
8
8
43
62
27
16
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
61
18
18
98
64
18
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
32
18
8
58
26
8
8
41
59
26
15
100

hitrate: 0.205 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 0.00 5.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.02 2.26 2.69
Heidke skill score: -0.193 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: 0.015 true Heidke skill score: 0.063
Kuipers skill score: -0.193 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: 0.023 true Kuipers skill score: 0.088
threat score:
0.036 0.000 0.186
threat score:
0.016 0.275 0.157
equitable threat score:
0.013 0.000 0.005
equitable threat score:
0.007 0.062 0.033
probability of detection:
0.036 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.016 0.704 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.814
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.689 0.814
samples: 44 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 41.90 %coverage: 100.00