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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
0
0
0
0
35
8
7
50
36
9
7
52

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
26
18
9
53
35
8
7
50
62
27
16
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
0
0
0
0
67
15
13
96
69
17
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
25
17
9
50
33
8
7
48
59
26
15
100

hitrate: 0.154 hitrate: 0.248
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 0.00 7.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 1.96 3.12
Heidke skill score: -0.269 Heidke skill score: -0.129
true Heidke skill score: -0.003 true Heidke skill score: 0.043
Kuipers skill score: -0.269 Kuipers skill score: -0.129
true Kuipers skill score: -0.005 true Kuipers skill score: 0.061
threat score:
0.027 0.000 0.140
threat score:
0.016 0.290 0.119
equitable threat score:
-0.011 0.000 0.006
equitable threat score:
-0.003 0.090 -0.012
probability of detection:
0.028 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.016 0.667 0.438
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.000 0.860
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.660 0.860
samples: 52 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 49.52 %coverage: 100.00