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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
11
0
0
0
0
20
13
3
36
27
17
3
47

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
11
24
25
9
58
20
13
3
36
51
42
12
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
9
0
23
0
0
0
0
43
28
6
77
57
36
6
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
0
10
23
24
9
55
19
12
3
34
49
40
11
100

hitrate: 0.213 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 0.00 12.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 1.38 3.00
Heidke skill score: -0.181 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: 0.036 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: -0.181 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: 0.055 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.226 0.000 0.083
threat score:
0.127 0.333 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.028 0.000 0.021
equitable threat score:
0.033 0.035 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.259 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.137 0.595 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.000 0.917
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.364 0.569 0.917
samples: 47 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 44.76 %coverage: 100.00