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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
0
0
0
0
24
21
6
51
28
22
6
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
23
20
6
49
24
21
6
51
51
42
12
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
0
0
0
0
43
38
11
91
50
39
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
22
19
6
47
23
20
6
49
49
40
11
100

hitrate: 0.179 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 0.00 8.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 1.17 4.25
Heidke skill score: -0.232 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.042 true Heidke skill score: 0.028
Kuipers skill score: -0.232 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.062 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
0.138 0.000 0.118
threat score:
0.077 0.282 0.105
equitable threat score:
0.057 0.000 0.012
equitable threat score:
0.032 0.008 0.003
probability of detection:
0.143 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.078 0.476 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.000 0.882
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.592 0.882
samples: 56 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 53.33 %coverage: 100.00