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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
14
3
26
0
0
0
0
1
3
14
18
10
17
17
44

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
14
3
26
14
29
18
61
1
3
14
18
24
46
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
32
7
59
0
0
0
0
2
7
32
41
23
39
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
13
3
25
13
28
17
58
1
3
13
17
23
44
33
100

hitrate: 0.523 hitrate: 0.495
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.60 0.00 1.06
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.08 1.33 0.51
Heidke skill score: 0.284 Heidke skill score: 0.243
true Heidke skill score: 0.326 true Heidke skill score: 0.201
Kuipers skill score: 0.284 Kuipers skill score: 0.243
true Kuipers skill score: 0.355 true Kuipers skill score: 0.197
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.220 0.372 0.359
equitable threat score:
0.147 0.000 0.502
equitable threat score:
0.087 0.044 0.242
probability of detection:
0.900 0.000 0.824
probability of detection:
0.375 0.630 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.654 0.000 0.222
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.654 0.525 0.222
samples: 44 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 41.90 %coverage: 100.00