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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 7.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
12
2
19
0
0
0
0
1
4
4
9
6
16
6
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
12
2
19
18
30
29
77
1
4
4
9
24
46
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
43
7
68
0
0
0
0
4
14
14
32
21
57
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
11
2
18
17
29
28
73
1
4
4
9
23
44
33
100

hitrate: 0.321 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.17 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.79 1.67 0.26
Heidke skill score: -0.018 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.136 true Heidke skill score: -0.032
Kuipers skill score: -0.018 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.184 true Kuipers skill score: -0.031
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.364
threat score:
0.132 0.323 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.058 0.000 0.228
equitable threat score:
0.020 -0.063 0.027
probability of detection:
0.833 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.208 0.652 0.114
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.737 0.000 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.737 0.610 0.556
samples: 28 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 26.67 %coverage: 100.00