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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
17
4
33
0
0
0
0
1
4
9
14
13
21
13
47

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
17
4
33
26
24
8
58
1
4
9
14
39
45
21
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
36
9
70
0
0
0
0
2
9
19
30
28
45
28
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
16
4
31
25
23
8
55
1
4
9
13
37
43
20
100

hitrate: 0.447 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.54 0.00 1.08
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.85 1.29 0.67
Heidke skill score: 0.170 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.235 true Heidke skill score: 0.078
Kuipers skill score: 0.170 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.263 true Kuipers skill score: 0.076
threat score:
0.353 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.200 0.304 0.346
equitable threat score:
0.115 0.000 0.363
equitable threat score:
-0.005 -0.016 0.267
probability of detection:
0.923 0.000 0.692
probability of detection:
0.308 0.533 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.636 0.000 0.357
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.636 0.586 0.357
samples: 47 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 44.76 %coverage: 100.00