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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
11
2
25
0
0
0
0
1
5
10
16
13
16
12
41

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
11
2
25
26
29
9
64
1
5
10
16
39
45
21
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
27
5
61
0
0
0
0
2
12
24
39
32
39
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
10
2
24
25
28
9
61
1
5
10
15
37
43
20
100

hitrate: 0.537 hitrate: 0.486
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.92 0.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.64 1.42 0.76
Heidke skill score: 0.305 Heidke skill score: 0.229
true Heidke skill score: 0.331 true Heidke skill score: 0.170
Kuipers skill score: 0.305 Kuipers skill score: 0.229
true Kuipers skill score: 0.346 true Kuipers skill score: 0.165
threat score:
0.462 0.000 0.556
threat score:
0.231 0.363 0.370
equitable threat score:
0.225 0.000 0.399
equitable threat score:
0.064 0.030 0.286
probability of detection:
0.923 0.000 0.833
probability of detection:
0.308 0.644 0.476
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.520 0.000 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.520 0.547 0.375
samples: 41 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 39.05 %coverage: 100.00