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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
11
2
19
0
0
0
0
1
2
0
3
7
13
2
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
11
2
19
32
32
19
83
1
2
0
3
39
45
21
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
50
9
86
0
0
0
0
5
9
0
14
32
59
9
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
10
2
18
30
30
18
79
1
2
0
3
37
43
20
100

hitrate: 0.273 hitrate: 0.362
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.71 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.49 1.84 0.14
Heidke skill score: -0.091 Heidke skill score: 0.043
true Heidke skill score: -0.020 true Heidke skill score: -0.085
Kuipers skill score: -0.091 Kuipers skill score: 0.043
true Kuipers skill score: -0.027 true Kuipers skill score: -0.078
threat score:
0.300 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.115 0.333 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.003 0.000 -0.058
equitable threat score:
-0.024 -0.059 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.857 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.154 0.711 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.684 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.684 0.614 1.000
samples: 22 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.95 %coverage: 100.00