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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
2
11
0
0
0
0
13
15
8
36
15
22
10
47

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
2
11
5
18
35
58
13
15
8
36
20
40
45
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
15
4
23
0
0
0
0
28
32
17
77
32
47
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
2
10
5
17
33
55
12
14
8
34
19
38
43
100

hitrate: 0.213 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.73 0.00 3.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.55 1.45 0.80
Heidke skill score: -0.181 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: -0.033 true Heidke skill score: -0.178
Kuipers skill score: -0.181 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: -0.039 true Kuipers skill score: -0.174
threat score:
0.083 0.000 0.211
threat score:
0.069 0.225 0.110
equitable threat score:
-0.074 0.000 0.011
equitable threat score:
-0.004 -0.071 -0.129
probability of detection:
0.133 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.100 0.450 0.178
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.818 0.000 0.778
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.818 0.690 0.778
samples: 47 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 44.76 %coverage: 100.00