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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
7
3
5
15
7
3
11
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
23
57
90
7
3
5
15
17
26
62
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
29
29
33
14
24
71
33
14
52
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
22
54
86
7
3
5
14
16
25
59
100

hitrate: 0.238 hitrate: 0.267
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 1.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.46 0.24
Heidke skill score: -0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.100
true Heidke skill score: -0.302 true Heidke skill score: -0.043
Kuipers skill score: -0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.100
true Kuipers skill score: -0.298 true Kuipers skill score: -0.053
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.238
threat score:
0.000 0.247 0.069
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.105 -0.217
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.010 -0.061
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.455
probability of detection:
0.000 0.885 0.081
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.744 0.667
samples: 21 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00