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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
8
5
24
11
8
5
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
11
18
39
11
8
5
24
21
19
23
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
46
33
21
100
46
33
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
16
17
29
62
17
13
8
38
33
30
37
100

hitrate: 0.208 hitrate: 0.254
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.05 1.04
Heidke skill score: -0.188 Heidke skill score: -0.119
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.107
Kuipers skill score: -0.188 Kuipers skill score: -0.119
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.108
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.208
threat score:
0.000 0.234 0.119
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.022 -0.113
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.579 0.217
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.792
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.718 0.792
samples: 24 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 38.10 %coverage: 100.00