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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
37
39
0
2
37
39

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
10
14
25
0
2
37
39
1
12
51
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
95
100
0
5
95
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
16
22
39
0
3
58
61
2
19
80
100

hitrate: 0.949 hitrate: 0.734
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.05
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.08 0.76
Heidke skill score: 0.923 Heidke skill score: 0.602
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.398
Kuipers skill score: 0.923 Kuipers skill score: 0.602
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.533
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.949
threat score:
0.000 0.370 0.698
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.238 0.270
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.725
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.051
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.051
samples: 39 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 60.94 %coverage: 100.00