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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
17
19
44
8
17
19
44

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
10
51
64
8
17
19
44
11
27
70
108

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
39
43
100
18
39
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
9
47
59
7
16
18
41
10
25
65
100

hitrate: 0.432 hitrate: 0.269
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.32
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.37 0.63
Heidke skill score: 0.148 Heidke skill score: -0.097
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.244
Kuipers skill score: 0.148 Kuipers skill score: -0.097
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.283
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.432
threat score:
0.000 0.123 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.092 -0.143
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.370 0.271
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.568
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.844 0.568
samples: 44 out of 108 samples: 108 out of 108
%coverage: 40.74 %coverage: 100.00