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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200210-200212

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
22
3
36
11
22
3
36

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
37
10
71
11
22
3
36
35
59
13
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
31
61
8
100
31
61
8
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
35
9
66
10
21
3
34
33
55
12
100

hitrate: 0.083 hitrate: 0.374
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 12.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.20 2.77
Heidke skill score: -0.375 Heidke skill score: 0.061
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.056
Kuipers skill score: -0.375 Kuipers skill score: 0.061
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.057
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.083
threat score:
0.000 0.398 0.065
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.040 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.627 0.231
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.917
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.479 0.917
samples: 36 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 33.64 %coverage: 100.00