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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Official Categorical Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
8
1
12
0
0
0
0
23
20
22
65
26
28
23
77

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
8
1
12
11
14
5
30
23
20
22
65
37
42
28
107

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
10
1
16
0
0
0
0
30
26
29
84
34
36
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
1
11
10
13
5
28
21
19
21
61
35
39
26
100

hitrate: 0.325 hitrate: 0.364
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.46 0.00 2.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.32 0.71 2.32
Heidke skill score: -0.013 Heidke skill score: 0.047
true Heidke skill score: 0.029 true Heidke skill score: 0.082
Kuipers skill score: -0.013 Kuipers skill score: 0.047
true Kuipers skill score: 0.030 true Kuipers skill score: 0.086
threat score:
0.086 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.065 0.241 0.310
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.000 0.055
equitable threat score:
-0.027 0.048 0.092
probability of detection:
0.115 0.000 0.957
probability of detection:
0.081 0.333 0.786
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.662
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.533 0.662
samples: 77 out of 107 samples: 107 out of 107
%coverage: 71.96 %coverage: 100.00